A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the nation and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
